The European Union's landmark plan to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035 could be on the verge of collapse, following comments from Manfred Weber, head of the European People's Party (EPP), the largest political group in the European Parliament.
In a significant shift that has sent shockwaves through the automotive industry, Weber has called for the ban to be scrapped entirely in favour of a technology-neutral approach that would allow combustion engines to continue beyond the deadline.
Speaking to the press, Weber argued that manufacturers should instead be required to reduce CO2 emissions by 90 per cent from 2035 onwards, rather than eliminating internal combustion engines altogether.
This would effectively permit the continued sale of petrol and diesel vehicles, provided they meet stringent emissions targets through technologies such as synthetic fuels or hybrid powertrains.
The timing of Weber's intervention is particularly significant. The proposal comes amid growing unease across Europe about the pace of the electric vehicle transition, with concerns mounting over charging infrastructure readiness, electricity grid capacity, and the affordability of EVs for average buyers.
Several member states, including Italy and Poland, have already voiced reservations about the 2035 target, arguing it fails to account for regional economic differences and manufacturing capabilities.
What Would This Mean for the Industry?
For Europe's automotive manufacturers, the potential policy reversal represents both an opportunity and a headache.
Companies like Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Renault have already committed billions of euros to electrification strategies built around the 2035 deadline.
A sudden shift in policy could undermine these investments, though it might also provide breathing room for brands struggling to make the electric transition profitable.
The German automotive sector has been particularly vocal in recent months about the challenges posed by the current timeline.
While premium manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi have made strong progress with their electric offerings, the volume brands serving Europe's mass market have struggled to develop affordable EVs that can compete with Chinese imports.
A more flexible approach could allow these manufacturers to continue selling plug-in hybrids and combustion vehicles running on e-fuels whilst they work on bringing down EV costs.
However, not everyone in the industry welcomes the potential U-turn.
Several manufacturers that have gone all-in on electrification, including Volvo and Polestar, have expressed concern that backtracking on the ban could slow overall EV adoption and create market uncertainty.
These brands argue that clear, unwavering policy provides the certainty needed for long-term investment decisions.
The Synthetic Fuel Question
Central to Weber's proposal is the role of synthetic fuels, also known as e-fuels.
These laboratory-produced hydrocarbons, created by combining captured CO2 with hydrogen generated from renewable electricity, theoretically offer a carbon-neutral alternative to conventional petrol and diesel.
Proponents, including Porsche and Ferrari, have invested heavily in e-fuel development, arguing they represent a viable path to maintaining combustion engines in a net-zero future.
Critics, however, point to significant challenges with synthetic fuels. Production costs remain astronomically high compared to conventional fuel or electricity, with current estimates suggesting e-fuels could cost three to four times more than petrol at the pump.
The energy efficiency is also questionable – producing e-fuels requires roughly five times more renewable electricity than simply charging a battery electric vehicle to travel the same distance.
What Happens Next?
Environmental groups have been quick to condemn Weber's proposal. Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based campaign group, argues that any delay to the combustion engine ban will lock Europe into fossil fuel dependency and undermine the continent's climate targets.
They point to analysis suggesting that even with a 90 per cent CO2 reduction target, loopholes in testing procedures could allow vehicles with significantly higher real-world emissions to remain on sale.
Despite Weber's position as head of the largest parliamentary group, scrapping or significantly altering the 2035 ban would require support from a majority of EU member states and the European Parliament.
The legislation was only agreed after lengthy negotiations in 2022, and reopening the debate could prove politically divisive.
The timing also matters. The European Commission is scheduled to review the 2035 target in 2026, assessing whether the automotive industry is on track to meet the deadline and whether any adjustments are necessary.
Many observers expect this review to be the natural forum for any policy changes, rather than an earlier intervention that could create market instability.
For British drivers, the implications are less clear-cut. The UK government has set its own 2030 target for ending new petrol and diesel sales, though this was recently pushed back to 2035 to align more closely with the EU.
Whether the UK would follow any European policy shift remains to be seen, though the government has indicated it wants to maintain competitiveness with the continent's automotive sector.
What's certain is that Weber's intervention has injected fresh uncertainty into Europe's automotive future.
Manufacturers now face the prospect of developing two parallel strategies: one for a world where the 2035 ban holds firm, and another where combustion engines enjoy an extended lease of life.
For an industry already grappling with the challenges of electrification, Chinese competition, and economic headwinds, it's yet another complication in an increasingly complex transition.